Portal, AZ - Rodeo, NM

             

Update 8/2/20 9:00 am

 

Data tables and graphs are updated daily and new added. Graphs detailing the uneven effect of Covid-19 on ethnic and racial subgroups have been added. New cases in Animas.

The United States saw a devastating surge in coronavirus infections during July, with more than 1.9 million new cases reported — by far the most tallied in a single month and a grim sign that the country had lost its grip on the pandemic.

Coronavirus-related deaths also rose after declining during April and May. The U.S. death toll now surpasses 150,000 and counting. This did not need to be the case and is a tragedy.

The pandemic has now multiple epicenters in the country driven by different factors. Each state, each city has its own crisis: vacation crowds in one, bars reopened too soon in another, a revolt against masks in a third.

“Unlike many countries in the world, the United States is not currently on course to get control of this epidemic. It’s time to reset,” declared a report released this week by Johns Hopkins University.

We hold an ignominious distinction in the developed world. I had hoped for a badge of honor, not a scarlet letter.

Dr. Jordan Shlain

https://tincture.io/dispatch-11-time-to-pivot-hard-246b8a87122c

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-51235105?intlink_from_url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/coronavirus&link_location=live-reporting-story

 

“It seems that some are more intent on fighting imagined enemies than the real enemy here, which is the virus,” said Thomas R. Frieden, a former CDC director and president of Resolve to Save Lives.

“The virus doesn’t read talking points,” Frieden said. “The virus doesn’t watch news shows. The virus just waits for us to make mistakes. And when we make mistakes, as Texas and Florida and South Carolina and Arizona did, the virus wins. When we ignore science, the virus wins.”

 

 There is some good news. In just over two months, the Northeast has gone from the country’s worst coronavirus hot spot to its most controlled. “It’s acting like Europe,” one expert said. It shows that using public health expertise you can control the infection. However, the experience here and in countries currently controlling the infection indicate that it will be a continuing battle. We will not succeed before we have both effective antiviral treatments and good vaccines. The virus will be with us and we must learn to live with it. You cannot bully a virus into making it disappear.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/07/31/covid-us-death-toll-150k/?arc404=true

What Covid-19 does love is large groups, indoors, close to each other, singing in groups and not wearing masks

1. Data for Arizona and New Mexico with emphasis on Cochise and Hidalgo Counties

COVID-19 is in Rodeo and is closing in on Portal with cases in San Simon (15 cases), 7 in Animas, 81 in Lordsburg, 693 in Douglas and 161 in Willcox. The good news is that there have not been any new cases in Zip 85632 and in Rodeo for more than 7 days. Animas however reported 2 new cases yesterday.

With Covid-19 in Rodeo, Animas and San Simon the threat of Covid-19 spreading in our communities is real. You can make it less likely by following common sense when interacting with other people:  outside is better than inside, crowd is better than large crowd, observe social distancing and use a mask when that is not possible.

 Arizona lost control of the epidemic when it re-opened too early. Latest data are reason for some optimism that the worst is over. Cases and hospitalizations are down. Deaths likely to follow same trend.

Yuma and Show Low are among the top 4 places hardest hit in the US since the beginning of the epidemic.

 

Hospitalizations:

The most accurate metric for severity of the epidemic is the hospitalization numbers. The number is frightening. Hospitals especially their ICU’s are close to their breaking point.

Internal FEMA memo reveals Arizona coronavirus patients taken to New Mexico over staffing shortages

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/509053-internal-fema-memo-reveals-arizona-coronavirus-patients-taken-to-nm-over

https://covidactnow

Cochise County, AZ 

We are clearly doing better than most of Arizona. Sierra Vista in particular has done a great job in controlling infection spread there. However, Douglas has not. Douglas  has nearly half of all infections in Cochise County and are adding more every day.  Willcox has a high number as well 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/arizona-coronavirus-cases.html

New Mexico Data: 

Hidalgo County, NM has 88 cases of Covid-19 with 1 in Rodeo, 7 in Animas.  2 new cases in Animas.

Metrics for comparing AZ to NM

1. US Data

Another record day with  close to 70,000 new cases. Hospitalizations and deaths are high. With no national plan for how to deal with Covid-19 each state is left to fend for themselves.

 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2020/jul/15/covid-19-coronavirus-us-map-latest-cases-state-by-state

The true number of infected is estimated to be about 10 times higher at more than 46 million. It is clear we still have many months with widespread infection and deaths. 

There is a marked racial/ethnic difference in both cases and death

s 

https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-all-key-metrics

Coronavirus hospitalizations and deaths are very high. 

Americans are living through a split-screen pandemic: Our leaders were relaxing restrictions while our states set records for new coronavirus infections. Bars, churches and beaches are filling up, and so are our hospital beds.

https://www.covidexitstrategy.org/

How do we compare to other countries?

Comparisons of US versus Germany, UK and Canada

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/mapping-spread-new-coronavirus/

1. What can we do to prevent Covid-19 from spreading?

Masks

At the heart of dismal U.S. coronavirus response, a fraught relationship with masks

If it’s not blatantly obvious, masks are the linchpin in both preventing you from spreading coronavirus and preventing you from getting COVID-19

TRANSMISSION

SEE IT

This video (3minutes) from Florida Atlantic University drive it all home.

Researchers test the effectiveness of Facemasks and Social Distancing. Share it with anyone who needs to ‘see it’ to believe it.

WHAT'S OLD IS NEW AGAIN: Government-ordered mask mandates are sweeping the country as facial coverings have emerged as a powerful tool to curb the spread of the novel coronavirus. 

https://masks4all.co/what-states-require-masks/

Face masks are not political statements but sound public health measures.

More than 100 countries in the world require masks in public because they endorse masks as effective in preventing COVID-19

COVID-19 is not just a respiratory infection but a systemic infectious disease. It infects lungs, blood, heart, liver, kidney and intestinal tract. People die mainly from respiratory failure, but many deaths are caused from heart involvement. Diabetes, obesity, chronic lung disease, hypertension and cardiovascular disease are risk factors for severe disease. All ages get Covid-19 but the severity and mortality are higher in age 65 and older. 

Transmission: Human to human COVID-19 is primarily spread from person to person. You can become infected from respiratory droplets when an infected person coughs, sneezes, or talks. You may also be able to get it by touching a surface or object that has the virus on it, and then by touching your mouth, nose, or eyes. Fecal-oral route is possible but likely rare. Food is not thought to be a factor. After a person gets infected the virus spreads throughout the body to nearly all organs.

1. What are the signs and symptoms of Covid-19

Symptom Tracker App Reveals Six Distinct Types of COVID-19 Infection

British scientists analyzing data from a widely used COVID-19 symptom-tracking app have found there are six distinct types of the disease, each distinguished by a cluster of symptoms.

The study (https://bit.ly/3jfiOJy), released online on Friday 7/17/20 but not peer-reviewed by independent scientists, described the six COVID-19 types as:

1. 'Flu-like' with no fever: Headache, loss of smell, muscle pains, cough, sore throat, chest pain, no fever.
2. 'Flu-like' with fever: Headache, loss of smell, cough, sore throat, hoarseness, fever, loss of appetite.
3. Gastrointestinal: Headache, loss of smell, loss of appetite, diarrhea, sore throat, chest pain, no cough.
4. Severe level one, fatigue: Headache, loss of smell, cough, fever, hoarseness, chest pain, fatigue.
5. Severe level two, confusion: Headache, loss of smell, loss of appetite, cough, fever, hoarseness, sore throat, chest pain, fatigue, confusion, muscle pain.
6. Severe level three, abdominal and respiratory: Headache, loss of smell, loss of appetite, cough, fever, hoarseness, sore throat, chest pain, fatigue, confusion, muscle pain, shortness of breath, diarrhea, abdominal pain.

Patients with level 4,5 and 6 types were more likely to be admitted to hospital and more likely to need respiratory support, the researchers said.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.12.20129056v1

1. What are the treatments available for Covid-19  

What types of drugs might work?

There are three broad approaches being investigated:

• Antiviral drugs that directly affect the coronavirus's ability to thrive inside the body
• Drugs that can calm the immune system - patients become seriously ill when their immune system overreacts and starts causing collateral damage to the body
• Antibodies, either from survivors' blood or made in a lab, that can attack the virus

Coronavirus Drug and Treatment Tracker

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-drugs-treatments.html

Antivirals:

STRONG EVIDENCE EMERGENCY USE AUTHORIZATION
Remdesivir
Remdesivir, made by Gilead Science, was the first drug to get emergency authorization from the F.D.A. for use on Covid-19. It stops viruses from replicating by inserting itself into new viral genes. Preliminary data from trials that began this spring suggested the drug can reduce the hospital stays of people with severe cases of Covid-19 from 15 to 11 days. These early results did not show any effect on mortality, though retrospective data released in July hints that the drug might reduce death rates among those who are very ill.

TENTATIVE OR MIXED EVIDENCE
Favipiravir
Originally designed to beat back influenza, favipiravir blocks a virus’s ability to copy its genetic material. A small study in March indicated the drug might help purge the coronavirus from the airway, but results from larger, well-designed clinical trials are still pending.

NOT PROMISING
Hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine
German chemists synthesized chloroquine in the 1930s as a drug against malaria. A less toxic version, called hydroxychloroquine, was invented in 1946, and later was approved for other diseases such as lupus and rheumatoid arthritis. 

The F.D.A. warns that the drug can cause a host of serious side effects to the heart and other organs when used to treat Covid-19.

Despite negative results, a number of hydroxychloroquine trials have continued. A recent analysis by STAT and Applied XL found more than 180 ongoing clinical trials testing hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine, for treating or preventing Covid-19.

Use of antibodies

PROMISING EVIDENCE EMERGENCY USE AUTHORIZATION
Convalescent plasma
A century ago, doctors filtered plasma from the blood of recovered flu patients. So-called convalescent plasma, rich with antibodies, helped people sick with flu fight their illness. Now researchers are trying out this strategy on Covid-19. Early trials with convalescent plasma have yielded promising, if preliminary, results, and the F.D.A. has authorized its use on very sick patients infected by the coronavirus.

TENTATIVE OR MIXED EVIDENCE
REGN-COV2 and other monoclonal antibodies
Convalescent plasma contains a mix of different antibodies, some of which can attack the coronavirus, and some of which can’t. Researchers have been sifting through the slurry for the most potent antibodies against Covid-19. Synthetic copies of these molecules, known as monoclonal antibodies, can be manufactured in bulk and then injected into patients. Safety trials for this treatment have only just begun, with several more on the way.

TENTATIVE OR MIXED EVIDENCE 
Interferons
Interferons are molecules our cells naturally produce in response to viruses, rousing the immune system to attack. Injecting synthetic interferons is now a standard treatment for a number of immune disorders. Rebif, for example, is prescribed for multiple sclerosis. Early studies, including experiments in mice and cells, hint that injecting interferons may help against Covid-19. An open-label study in China suggested that the molecules could  help prevent healthy people from getting infected. On July 20, the British pharmaceutical company Synairgen announced that an inhaled form of interferon called SNG001 lowered the risk of severe Covid-19 in infected patients in a small clinical trial. The full data have not yet been released to the public or published in a scientific journal.

Immune modulators

The most severe symptoms of Covid-19 are the result of the immune system’s overreaction to the virus. Scientists are testing drugs that can rein in its attack.

STRONG EVIDENCE
Dexamethasone
This cheap and widely available steroid blunts many types of immune responses. Doctors have long used it to treat allergies, asthma and inflammation. In June, it became the first drug shown to reduce Covid-19 deaths. That study found that dexamethasone reduced deaths by one-third in patients on ventilators, and by one-fifth in patients on oxygen. 

 

PROMISING EVIDENCE EMERGENCY USE AUTHORIZATION
Cytosorb
Cytosorb is a cartridge that filters immune-signaling molecules called cytokines from the blood. Although cytokines are essential for fighting off diseases, they can sometimes trigger a runaway response. The body produces so much inflammation that it damages itself. By removing excess cytokines, Cytosorb may be able to cool this so-called cytokine storm. The machine can purify a patient’s entire blood supply about 70 times in a 24-hour period. It was granted emergency use authorization by the F.D.A. for Covid-19 after reports in March suggested that it had helped dozens of severely ill Covid-19 patients in Europe and China. 

Pseudoscience and Fraud

False claims about Covid-19 cures abound. The F.D.A. maintains a list of more than 80 fraudulent Covid-19 products, and the W.H.O. debunks many myths about the disease.

WARNING: DO NOT DO THIS
Drinking or injecting bleach and disinfectants
In April, President Trump suggested that disinfectants such as alcohol or bleach might be effective against the coronavirus if directly injected into the body. His comments were immediately refuted by health professionals and researchers around the world — as well as the makers of Lysol and Clorox. Ingesting disinfectant would not only be ineffective against the virus, but also hazardous — possibly even deadly. In July, Federal prosecutors charged four Florida men with marketing bleach as a cure for COVID-19.

WARNING: NO EVIDENCE
UV light
President Trump also speculated about hitting the body with “ultraviolet or just very powerful light.” Researchers have used UV light to sterilize surfaces, including killing viruses, in carefully managed laboratories. But UV light would not be able to purge the virus from within a sick persons’ body. This kind of radiation can also damage the skin. Most skin cancers are a result of exposure to the UV rays naturally present in sunlight.

WARNING: NO EVIDENCE
Silver
The F.D.A. has threatened legal action against a host of people claiming silver-based products are safe and effective against Covid-19 — including televangelist Jim Bakker and InfoWars host Alex Jones. Several metals do have natural antimicrobial properties. But products made from them have not been shown to prevent or treat the coronavirus.

Prevention

Vaccine: “If there is a silver lining to the flawed U.S. response to the coronavirus pandemic, it is this: The relatively high number of new cases being diagnosed daily — upward of 30,000 — will make it easier to test new vaccines. 

The New York Times has an excellent site for tracking vaccine development

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html

 

I have selected what I consider the most promising candidates below

1. Other information relevant to Covid-19

Useful Websites & Phone Numbers

Arizona Department of Health website ihttps://www.azdhs.gov/preparedness/epidemiology-disease-control/infectious-disease-epidemiology/index.php#novel-coronavirus-home 

New Mexico Department of Health Website

 https://cv.nmhealth.org/

Cochise County Website

 https://covid-cochisehealth.hub.arcgis.com/

Information about how, where and criteria for getting tested for COVID-19:

Arizona: 1-844-542-8201 The Arizona Poison Control System at the University of AZ in Tucson is available for the general public for information relating to testing, isolation, and quarantine guidance. Anyone in Arizona can now be tested.  

New Mexico: 1-855-600-3453 Coronavirus hotline. 

In Hidalgo County the Animas Valley Clinic has test kits 

Seniors in AZ and NM that have problems getting groceries:

AZ Helpline information for seniors is posted above.

For Cochise County 520-432-2528

NM Senior Food Hotline: 1-800-432-2080

During this time of unprecedented health risks, we are extremely fortunate to have Frances Grill and her staff providing care here in Portal and San Simon.

News from Walker Family Medicine Clinic in Portal 7/1/20

Thank you all for following good physical distancing and washing your hands often. We’ll get through this if we keep vigilant.

Lastly, for those Portal/Rodeo residents who are not WFM patients:  If you have symptoms, questions, concerns and are not able to reach your PCP, please feel free to call Jackie, 558-2287, Carolyn, 558-1234, Deborah, 558-0119 or Frances, 558-2345.  Any one of us is willing to do a phone or home assessment as to the severity of your symptoms.  We do this as community-oriented Samaritans and not as representatives of Portal Rescue or WFM.  
Debb, Frances and Dawn

This is our time to be kind, to be calm and to be safe.

Social Distancing is really:  Physical distancing but Social engaging. Keep your distance from each other at 6 feet. Wear a mask if you cannot keep a safe distance.

Our Post Offices are essential to us. Please be extremely careful when you pick up mail- wear a mask. Be nice to our postmasters and follow their instructions. 

Let us support our local businesses like Sky Island Grill and Grocery and Portal Caféé. Please use them as they are vital to our community. Consider buying gift cards for future use. Order from their menus to take out. Buy from their groceries.